2007: Who does the cap fit in Katsina?

As the political atmosphere gets ready for the 2007 general elections, politicians, left, right and centre are begging to canvass for the support of the electorate. In Katsina State, the story is not different.
Politicians who hardly see eye to eye are now coming closer, forging political alliances that would make them relevant in post 2007 political arrangement of the country. On the other hand, politicians who were before eating from the same political pot have now become sworn enemies and are out looking for ways to outdo one another and possibly embark on political vendetta post 2007 elections. Katsina state is an interesting political arena. Nigerians would remember Katsina State for producing versatile and charismatic politicians, such as, the great political schemer, late General Shehu Musa Yar’adua, Alhaji Lawal Kaita, late Alhaji Wada Nas, Alhaji Iro Danmusa, Barrister Mamman Abubakar Danmusa and the ANPP presidential candidate in the 2003 elections, General Muhammadu Buhari, among others.
Katsina State since 1999 has been a preserve of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP). It has been suggested that credit must be given to Governor Umaru Musa Yar’adua for his ability to have a firm grip of the state machinery and gain total control of his party, PDP. It was this absolute control that saw the governor emerging as the only PDP aspirant for the 2003 election. It is therefore clear in Katsina state that one can hardly separate the party and the governor.
Some political analysts are of the view that by the end of the second term in office of Governor Umaru Musa Yar’adua, the governorship should move to Funtua zone (popularly known as Karaduwa Area), the only zone yet to taste power among the three Senatorial zones. The jostling so far is not political theory, because the political tempo of Katsina state is fast heating up indicating that 2007, would not only attract contestants but might produce dramatic twists.Taking a look at the would be gladiators for now, it is evident that the political sky in Katsina is as heavy and laden with possibilities like a gathering storm for an explosive down-pour with most of the gladiators coming from the PDP. There are many people in the state who hope to occupy the number one slot in Katsina. Names like the current Speaker of Federal House of Representatives, Alhaji Aminu Bello Masari, the current Deputy Governor, Alhaji Garba Abdullahi Aminchi, Alhaji Murtala Ibrahim Safana, Ambassador Magaji Mohammed, AIG Umar Maiwada Suleiman, Senator Abdu Umar Yandoma among others from the PDP.
There are others from the ANPP which includes, Senator Kanti Bello, Senator Habu Ibrahim, the defeated ANPP Gubernatorial candidate in 2003 election, Engineer Nura Khalil. Whereas the former Deputy Governor, Alhaji Ahmed Tukur Jikamshi is rumoured to be warming up to come out under the newly registered ACD, which has already been threatening the ruling party, PDP.
The rumour and confusion in Katsina State is that today, Governor Yar’adua will endorse Masari, tomorrow it is either Ambassador Magaji Mohammed, Abdullahi Aminchi, or Murtala Safana. The strength of the rumour depends on which side of the divide your informant is favourable disposed to. But, to properly understand the depth of the confusion, let us examine each aspirant, his chances and major set backs.
Hon. Aminu Bello Masari
He is the incumbent Speaker of House of Representatives. Alhaji Aminu Bello Masari is representing Kasur Malumfashi constituency, from Funtua Zone in the National Assembly. The issue of the speaker’s interest in succeeding Governor Umaru Musa Yar’adua is no longer in doubt.
From the array of offices and numerous supporters spread across the state, one is no longer in doubt about the Speaker’s intention to be the next Governor of the state. With his position as the number four man, in the country, it is clear Masari has enough friends and resources to match any contestant who dares threaten his ambition.
It was only recently we were told that Governor Yar’adua endorsed him. A very competent source and a close associate of the speaker told Vanguard that PDP had already zoned the governorship seat to the southern zone, Funtua senatorial, which is Masari’s constituency. We were also told that the Governor had asked all party faithfuls in the state to support the speaker’s bid.
Alhaji Dahiru Mangal, a Katsina based businessman and a highly respected politician is among reputable personalities behind Masari. Many political pundits believe that with Mangal’s position and support count seriously in determining who picks the PDP ticket for 2007Honourable Aminu Bello Masari is the candidate to beat because he has all it takes to do the job. He has been tested and trusted by Katsina people and beyond. So far, many groups and individuals have already endorsed him for the position. Above all, Masari enjoys a considerable support of both the youth, elders and the grassroots’ politicians.
Despite Masari’s chances of succeeding Yar’adua, he may face protest votes from some PDP members whose candidates he is likely going to defeat at the primary level. However, Masari is likely to triumph at last because of his contributions to nation building which may attract many people from within and outside the PDP to support him. Infact, many politicians who are yearning for a change in Katsina State will back Masari towards 2007.
Ambassador Magaji Muhammed
Another major contender is Ambassador Magaji Muhammed, the immediate past Minister of Internal Affairs. Ambassador Magaji has been in politics since the NRC days. It was even rumoured that in 1999, he had an agreement with Governor Yar’adua that 2007 would be his turn. A major advantage for Ambassador Magaji is that he is closely related to the governor. So if Governor Yar’adua decides that the seat should remain within his family, Ambassador Magaji would carry the day.
A minus for Ambassador Magaji would be the zoning of the seat to the Southern part of the state, because he is from Katsina central zone. Another disadvantage for Ambassador Magaji Muhammad, is that he is not on ground in Katsina politically. It is alleged that he stays more in Kaduna, away from the real Katsina political arena. Vanguard gathered that, the Major argument by his opponents is that he is very stingy, which they claim makes him a hard sell.
Alhaji Abdullahi Garba Aminchi
The deputy governor is considered a very loyal and cool headed man. He is seen as very religious, tolerant and a peace loving. If the incumbent Governor, Alhaji Umaru Musa Yar’adua recognizes the contribution and loyalty of Aminchi, there is no doubt that the deputy governor may be the governor’s successor. If the governor endorses Aminchi, his chance of winning 2007 election is bright, more so because of his acceptability amongst religious leaders, community leaders and non-indigenes. Also, he has many council chairmen on his side. Alhaji Aminchi, from Funtua zone has been playing a prominent role in the socio-economic and political development of the state. It was his level of commitment and patriotism that saw him occupying the seat of the deputy governor of the state for the second time. He was the deputy governor under the state’s first civilian administration of Alhaji Saidu Barda under Alhaji Yar’adua. many people welcome Aminchi, the bridge builder into the Katsina State 2007 governorship race, as one of the best materials from Funtua zone.
Murtala Ibrahim Safana
He is considered as a role model for the teaming youths in the state, and he has been assisting various communities with his educational trust fund. Safana, has empowered many youths in the state. He is believed to be connected to IBB and Gen. Aliyu Gusau, which indicated that he may have presidential support. But despite enjoying Abuja support, Murtala Safana’s chances may be frustrated like it happened to Lawal Kaita in 1979, Safana may not be allowed to get to the Government House because of the fear of the Emirate. According to a reliable source close to the Emir’s palace, Safana belongs to a ruling house that has lost the throne many years back, and if he becomes governor, he may likely under flimsy excuse return the throne to their house, a situation which the present emirate will never allow to happen.
Barrister Ibrahim Shehu Shema
He is believed to be enjoying the support of the incumbent and that is why he is gradually being positioned to take over from Yar’adua in 2007. Shema is rumoured to be in the process of taking one of the governor’s daughters as a new wife as a political strategy. Shema may use his present position as the Deputy National Chairman (North) of PDP. But his joining the 2007 governorship race may not go well with his political godfather, Ambassador Magaji Mohammed, the former Minister of Internal Affairs, fingered to be nursing his long ambition of becoming the governor of Katsina State. But if Ibrahim Shema could resolve the issue with his political mentor, Magaji the sky will be the limit for him as both of them are from Katsina zone.
From all indications, it seems there is no hope for ANPP come 2007 unless they resolve their internal crises as a result of the clash of interest among the three contending gubernatorial aspirants. Senator Kanti Bello, Senator Habu Ibrahim and the defeated 2003 candidate, Engineer Nura Khalil. Unlike in 2003, when the Buhari factor was visible and effective which assisted ANPP in snatching two out of three senatorial seats, numerous national and state assemblies positions from PDP, 2007 might not be so good for the ANPP as PDP appears set to re-capture the state. The ACD on the other hand stands a better chance of gaining from both the PDP and ANPP primaries fall out since most of the contestants are not ready to step down for each other.

From Vanguard